by doppelganger · 04/06/19
Hold your horses. Bitcoin is not going to the moon now. Not even to 10k. That pump you saw on 2nd April was caused most probably by some manipulation and short squeeze and also some TA. Since then, we’ve seen so many videos and articles FOMOing into the Bitcoin again. Yes, it basically takes 1 day and a 20% surge in price to change the sentiment of many. That’s sad to us as honest educators in this marker and reassuring to manipulators that will soon make you fall to your knees again.
Anyway, Bitcoin has been on the path of 2014-15 cycle since December 17th 2017. With each passing day, it becomes clearer and clearer how closely the price is following the exact same pattern it did during its previous cycle. However, there are some differences. If you were to juxtapose the two cycles, you could see that the correction in the ongoing cycle is more extended in comparison to the previous cycle. Being more clear: the current bearish cycle takes longer to form compared to the previous one.
Let’s check some history first. The bear market that started in June 2011 took around 210 days to finish. The next bloodbath of 2014-15 lasted for approx. 700 days to complete. The existing bear fiesta has lasted for 494 days as of now which is 206 days less than the previous bear market.
Let’s look at ATHs now. It took BTC 903 days to go from one ATH to another in the span of 2011-2014. Then, BTC had to climb 1,477 days to go from one ATH to another.
Traders and investors with the standard markets background may be able to spot this - the market cycles keep on expanding and take more time than before to complete. All in all, Bitcoin has at least 206 more days of bear market remaining (possibly more). This makes a lot of sense from an emerging market or new asset standpoint. Whenever a new market or asset starts trading, we see massive growth in a short time. Yet, as time goes by the pace of that growth diminishes which means the price takes a lot longer to make the same profit that it did before. That’s just normal market behaviour and even biggest manipulators fail to change that.
Therefore, a true trend reversal cannot be the case now. We already know that the market cycles keep on expanding every time and every bear market has reigned longer than the previous one.
For example, in 2015 Bitcoin took several attempts to rally, all of them failed. The important data is the 21 Monthly EMA that resisted Bitcoin several times. Bitcoin lost 1/3 of its value back then (310 USD down to 210 USD). We believe that the recent pump from 2nd April was one of those attempts to test that level (slightly above 5200 USD) and this fake rally is dubbed as “the kiss of death” by some. Therefore, we could see the previous lows at 3200 being tested soon again.
Let’s not forget that whenever a market like this reverses, it bears a lot of pain before it does that. So far, we have not seen that pain, only small panic when the fake Satoshi aka Craig S. Wright tried his Blitzkrieg in November 2018.
However, it is very puzzling to notice that even some of the most widely acclaimed and followed people in this space are ignoring the historical data/indicators and gleefully calling Bitcoin to go at least 20k soon again. People are so easily tricked and manipulated - after 2nd April the total search for “Bitcoin” on Google doubled and crypto was all over the news again. Sad but true.
When the price truly bottoms, a lot of people are going to be so dubious about Bitcoin to rise again.
Only then will we see a true trend reversal and start of the new bull run.